few more hours ...    now less than forty-eight hours of opening the envelopes and the 'Oscar fever 
 ' rooms. It 's no point in making the snobbish indifference: Anyone passionate about film can not fail to throw their eyes to what will happen next Sunday in the Kodak Theatre in Los Angeles. Because like it or not the film can not help but Hollywood and the Oscars are the party that celebrates Hollywood itself: an anniversary garish, pachyderm, kitsch, outdated as you like but always indicative of trends on fashion and film of the moment. Why do not you forget that the Oscars are the rewards of industry, and what comes out of the night of the stars is always an ideal 'thermometer' to test its creative and commercial studios. And this year more so the competition is indicative of the state of health of the majors, because they challenge as well as two films in the struggle between them, two diametrically opposed ways of making films that evoke different reactions in viewers and interests. 
 But then we see, in detail, who will star in the Oscar 2010. Try, as always, play in the predictions and the applications which I enjoy very much (Yes. .. everyone has fun as possible). 
 Let's see then:   
 BEST FILM    As mentioned, two totally different concepts and the antithesis of filmmaking. On the basis of applications received, it is clear that 
  King's speech is the number one favorite. Both the number of nominations obtained (twelve) for the type of film. Tom Hooper's film 
  fact is, on paper, the classic product made especially to win the statuette, is politically correct, glossy, icy, packed extra luxury and allows the extraordinary 'tests players': all of the 
 Colin Firth , which this year is quite determined to grab that prize by a whisker sfuggitogli the past year. Above is a British film, and we know that across the Channel are masters in producing silisticamente works perfect (but often quite low in content) that much like the 'mature' jurors Academy. Think 
 Shakespeare in Love, Sense and Sensibility, Howards End, Atonement  ...  
 Sorry, though, that the cost is having to make a film intended to rimanese imprinted in people's heads for many years to come. The real Kane 
  the present century, and certainly the bloodiest and true fresco of contemporary society. I'm talking, of course, of The Social Network 
 , for which the undersigned is not ashamed of doing some cheering a shameless plug: David Fincher's film 
  is the best film of the beginning of this millennium, and who knows how many years it will be again. Work 'momentous' (in the strict sense of the word), which shows us' (in) evolution of the human and social relationships and social skills through the invention of what is considered the most influential (and profitable!) Of recent years. And to which this blog has devoted plenty of space (see 
  here and here 
 ). Of course, it will be difficult to convince 'fogies' Academy of the scope of this title, considering that it is mostly elderly members and little reluctant to films 'innovative' and investigation. But often we enter Oscar pope and cardinal exits (see Avatar the last year), and then the hope is the last to die. Very few chanche instead for other titles in the race to have increased to ten the number of nominees to the most coveted statuette has not been revealed (for now) quality assurance: the only true outsider might be possible coena 
 The Grit  (nice and 'classic' as I like the Americans, plus shot of a pair of filmmakers who always falls under the 'preferences' of the jurors). For others, really, just crumbs.  
  WIN ': THE SPEECH OF THE KING  
   MY FAVORITE: THE SOCIAL NETWORK     
    BEST DIRECTOR   Nobody can take away the award to David Fincher 
 . Otherwise I'm angry! The Social Network 
  is a solid film, masterful, flawless, brilliant. There are certain virtuoso's car and found that no stylistic comparisons with the film patinatissima 
  Tom Hooper (as usual, the other antagonist) pointing at the actor's definitely not on the 'construction' of the scenes. Any other result would be a steal beautiful and good. Pace of 
  Coen Brothers (already amply rewarded in past), 
 David Aronofsky, David O. Russell . We'll see.  
  WIN ': David Fincher  
   MY FAVORITE: David Fincher  
  
    ACTOR   The winner is already written: 
  Colin Firth, having missed out on the statuette 'last year with 
 A Single Man Tom Ford , is already virtually secure the prize. The bookmakers are not accepted more bets on him. And after all this prize is good: because it is a fair recognition to the career of good British actor, is actually because his performance in The King's speech is 'majestic' (excuse the pun). Besides, in a year where, strangely, there is not much competition: little more than 'ornamental' nominations for 
  James Franco, of the 'usual' 
 Javier Bardem , the young Jesse Eisenberg 
  and increasingly gigione 
  Jeff Bridges, winner of 'outgoing'.  
  WIN ': COLIN FIRTH  
   MY FAVORITE: COLIN FIRTH  
   BEST ACTRESS    Contrary to what usually happens, this year the women's competition is highest level, much more than their male colleagues. Large uncertainty 
  Natalie Portman, a wonderful interpreter of a bad movie like The Black Swan should do it, but the heavy falls on her 'shadow' of 
 Annette Bening , talented and she never rewarded despite numerous nominations, and also very good at it 
 The boys are doing well . It will be a good fight, and in any case will emerge a worthy winner. But attention also to the other: 
  Michelle Williams has impressed in Blue Valentine, while 
 Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole) is now  un'habituè the Kodak Theatre. Although in the end the best of all is the young (and tough) 
 Jennifer Lawrence  , The great protagonist of a cold winter 
 , independent film and hard, light years away from the logic of Hollywood. It will not win, but be assured that it affects our speech.  
  WIN ': NATALIE PORTMAN  
   my favorite: NATALIE PORTMAN  
   ACTOR   As always, great uncertainty. 
  Christian Bale is one of my favorite actors: I loved 
  The Prestige and The Dark Knight, and now with 
  The fighter could get to the statue. But if the king's speech 
  were stealing all the prizes (as I suspect) Geoffrey Rush 
  here that certainly would benefit domino-effect. mind you it would be a worthy winner. Already awarded with the OSCE 
  Shine, is also perfect in the role of speech therapist trusted of King George, where he keeps his head well to the 'predestined' 
  Colin Firth (see above).  
  WIN ': GEOFFREY RUSH  
   my favorite: CHRISTIAN BALE  
   ACTRESS    already seen 
  Frozen River, Melissa Leo 
  is popular interpreter of a film is not as memorable as 
 The fighter . Could you check it though honestly I doubt that a movie like The Grit 
 , great western (genre beloved by Americans, and then the jurors dell'Acedemy, anzianotti and 'nostalgic') remains empty-handed. So here is the possible looming victory of the young 
 Hailee Steinfeld  (just fourteen years old), energetic and pugnacious in the film signed by Coen, and that can not disappear in the presence of 'superstars' like Jeff Bridges and Matt Damon. Y'know what? I point to her ...  
  WIN ': Hailee STEINFELD  
   my favorite: Hailee STEINFELD  
   BEST SCREENPLAY ORIGINAL   The screenplay is the category which usually are awarded the most original ideas and 'courageous' year, and where the jurors Academy (often with a guilty conscience) took refuge to give a sop to those works 'should' be awarded but are often 'politically incorrect' or too far away from Hollywood royalty to aspire to the goal of best film. A premium, in short, often assigned the banner of 'I would but I can not', and that have a history of illustrious winners.  
 In fact, this year among the nominees for best script we find the pair 
 Lisa Cholodenko-Stuart Blumberg , competing with the 'scorrettissimo' 
  The boys are doing well and, above all, Christopher Nolan 
  with 
 Inception . Needless to say that his screenplay is the most beautiful ones in the race, without a doubt. Inception 
  is a film that, in truth, it touched my heart, in that it is too cold and 'brain' for my tastes, but work on the screenplay by the talented director in London is superb. Nolan, however, is not too much loved by the Academy, perhaps because of its (too?) Awareness of being good, or maybe because he never bowed to the logic of power Hollywood. Fattostà after the sensational exclusion from the quintet of the best directors, the jurors could preferigli convenzionalissima the screenplay 
  king's speech, especially if that effect will occur-cascade mentioned above.  
  WIN ': THE SPEECH OF THE KING      my favorite: Inception      BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY   Here there is just tender. And if things go wrong for 
 The Social Network , it is frankly impossible for 
 screenplay by Aaron Sorkin  not be rewarded: the strength of the film by David Fincher 
  is just the script, fast, engaging, exasperating, cynical, incredibly effective. An extraordinary work that will be remembered for posterity as a true manual script, and that can not be afraid to even the good adaptations of 
 The Grit, Toy Story 3, and 127 hours    An icy winter.  
  MY FAVORITE: THE SOCIAL NETWORK      WIN ': T HE SOCIAL NETWORK        OTHER CATEGORIES   little to say on the other candidates: uncertainty reigns in the best foreign film, always a harbinger of surprises: the favorite seems to be 
  Inarritu's Biutiful 
 , with Javier Bardem 
 , but also with his 
 Suzanne Bier   A better world  has good chances, and it says a lot of good also de 
 The woman who sings , seen in Venice. For the rest, easy to predict the victory of 
 Toy Story 3  between the cartoons and that of the 'master' 
 for photography Roger Deakins  de 
  The Grit, and frankly I do not do predictions for the technical categories and for the music, moltro more details. Finally, little hope for the only Italian bid: Costumes for 
 Antonella Cannarozzi   I love  have little chance of upsetting the odds favored seeing the 'legendary' 
  Colleen Atwood (winner of two Oscar) with Alice in Wonderland 
 .