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few more hours ...

now less than forty-eight hours of opening the envelopes and the 'Oscar fever ' rooms. It 's no point in making the snobbish indifference: Anyone passionate about film can not fail to throw their eyes to what will happen next Sunday in the Kodak Theatre in Los Angeles. Because like it or not the film can not help but Hollywood and the Oscars are the party that celebrates Hollywood itself: an anniversary garish, pachyderm, kitsch, outdated as you like but always indicative of trends on fashion and film of the moment. Why do not you forget that the Oscars are the rewards of industry, and what comes out of the night of the stars is always an ideal 'thermometer' to test its creative and commercial studios. And this year more so the competition is indicative of the state of health of the majors, because they challenge as well as two films in the struggle between them, two diametrically opposed ways of making films that evoke different reactions in viewers and interests.
But then we see, in detail, who will star in the Oscar 2010. Try, as always, play in the predictions and the applications which I enjoy very much (Yes. .. everyone has fun as possible).
Let's see then:

BEST FILM

As mentioned, two totally different concepts and the antithesis of filmmaking. On the basis of applications received, it is clear that King's speech is the number one favorite. Both the number of nominations obtained (twelve) for the type of film. Tom Hooper's film fact is, on paper, the classic product made especially to win the statuette, is politically correct, glossy, icy, packed extra luxury and allows the extraordinary 'tests players': all of the Colin Firth , which this year is quite determined to grab that prize by a whisker sfuggitogli the past year. Above is a British film, and we know that across the Channel are masters in producing silisticamente works perfect (but often quite low in content) that much like the 'mature' jurors Academy. Think Shakespeare in Love, Sense and Sensibility, Howards End, Atonement ...

Sorry, though, that the cost is having to make a film intended to rimanese imprinted in people's heads for many years to come. The real Kane the present century, and certainly the bloodiest and true fresco of contemporary society. I'm talking, of course, of The Social Network , for which the undersigned is not ashamed of doing some cheering a shameless plug: David Fincher's film is the best film of the beginning of this millennium, and who knows how many years it will be again. Work 'momentous' (in the strict sense of the word), which shows us' (in) evolution of the human and social relationships and social skills through the invention of what is considered the most influential (and profitable!) Of recent years. And to which this blog has devoted plenty of space (see here and here ). Of course, it will be difficult to convince 'fogies' Academy of the scope of this title, considering that it is mostly elderly members and little reluctant to films 'innovative' and investigation. But often we enter Oscar pope and cardinal exits (see Avatar the last year), and then the hope is the last to die. Very few chanche instead for other titles in the race to have increased to ten the number of nominees to the most coveted statuette has not been revealed (for now) quality assurance: the only true outsider might be possible coena The Grit (nice and 'classic' as I like the Americans, plus shot of a pair of filmmakers who always falls under the 'preferences' of the jurors). For others, really, just crumbs.

WIN ': THE SPEECH OF THE KING

MY FAVORITE: THE SOCIAL NETWORK


BEST DIRECTOR
Nobody can take away the award to David Fincher . Otherwise I'm angry! The Social Network is a solid film, masterful, flawless, brilliant. There are certain virtuoso's car and found that no stylistic comparisons with the film patinatissima Tom Hooper (as usual, the other antagonist) pointing at the actor's definitely not on the 'construction' of the scenes. Any other result would be a steal beautiful and good. Pace of Coen Brothers (already amply rewarded in past), David Aronofsky, David O. Russell . We'll see.

WIN ': David Fincher

MY FAVORITE: David Fincher

ACTOR
The winner is already written: Colin Firth, having missed out on the statuette 'last year with A Single Man Tom Ford , is already virtually secure the prize. The bookmakers are not accepted more bets on him. And after all this prize is good: because it is a fair recognition to the career of good British actor, is actually because his performance in The King's speech is 'majestic' (excuse the pun). Besides, in a year where, strangely, there is not much competition: little more than 'ornamental' nominations for James Franco, of the 'usual' Javier Bardem , the young Jesse Eisenberg and increasingly gigione Jeff Bridges, winner of 'outgoing'.

WIN ': COLIN FIRTH

MY FAVORITE: COLIN FIRTH

BEST ACTRESS

Contrary to what usually happens, this year the women's competition is highest level, much more than their male colleagues. Large uncertainty Natalie Portman, a wonderful interpreter of a bad movie like The Black Swan should do it, but the heavy falls on her 'shadow' of Annette Bening , talented and she never rewarded despite numerous nominations, and also very good at it The boys are doing well . It will be a good fight, and in any case will emerge a worthy winner. But attention also to the other: Michelle Williams has impressed in Blue Valentine, while Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole) is now un'habituè the Kodak Theatre. Although in the end the best of all is the young (and tough) Jennifer Lawrence , The great protagonist of a cold winter , independent film and hard, light years away from the logic of Hollywood. It will not win, but be assured that it affects our speech.

WIN ': NATALIE PORTMAN

my favorite: NATALIE PORTMAN

ACTOR
As always, great uncertainty. Christian Bale is one of my favorite actors: I loved The Prestige and The Dark Knight, and now with The fighter could get to the statue. But if the king's speech were stealing all the prizes (as I suspect) Geoffrey Rush here that certainly would benefit domino-effect. mind you it would be a worthy winner. Already awarded with the OSCE Shine, is also perfect in the role of speech therapist trusted of King George, where he keeps his head well to the 'predestined' Colin Firth (see above).

WIN ': GEOFFREY RUSH

my favorite: CHRISTIAN BALE

ACTRESS

already seen Frozen River, Melissa Leo is popular interpreter of a film is not as memorable as The fighter . Could you check it though honestly I doubt that a movie like The Grit , great western (genre beloved by Americans, and then the jurors dell'Acedemy, anzianotti and 'nostalgic') remains empty-handed. So here is the possible looming victory of the young Hailee Steinfeld (just fourteen years old), energetic and pugnacious in the film signed by Coen, and that can not disappear in the presence of 'superstars' like Jeff Bridges and Matt Damon. Y'know what? I point to her ...

WIN ': Hailee STEINFELD

my favorite: Hailee STEINFELD

BEST SCREENPLAY ORIGINAL
The screenplay is the category which usually are awarded the most original ideas and 'courageous' year, and where the jurors Academy (often with a guilty conscience) took refuge to give a sop to those works 'should' be awarded but are often 'politically incorrect' or too far away from Hollywood royalty to aspire to the goal of best film. A premium, in short, often assigned the banner of 'I would but I can not', and that have a history of illustrious winners.

In fact, this year among the nominees for best script we find the pair Lisa Cholodenko-Stuart Blumberg , competing with the 'scorrettissimo' The boys are doing well and, above all, Christopher Nolan with Inception . Needless to say that his screenplay is the most beautiful ones in the race, without a doubt. Inception is a film that, in truth, it touched my heart, in that it is too cold and 'brain' for my tastes, but work on the screenplay by the talented director in London is superb. Nolan, however, is not too much loved by the Academy, perhaps because of its (too?) Awareness of being good, or maybe because he never bowed to the logic of power Hollywood. Fattostà after the sensational exclusion from the quintet of the best directors, the jurors could preferigli convenzionalissima the screenplay king's speech, especially if that effect will occur-cascade mentioned above.
WIN ': THE SPEECH OF THE KING
my favorite: Inception

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Here there is just tender. And if things go wrong for The Social Network , it is frankly impossible for screenplay by Aaron Sorkin not be rewarded: the strength of the film by David Fincher is just the script, fast, engaging, exasperating, cynical, incredibly effective. An extraordinary work that will be remembered for posterity as a true manual script, and that can not be afraid to even the good adaptations of The Grit, Toy Story 3, and 127 hours An icy winter.
MY FAVORITE: THE SOCIAL NETWORK
WIN ': T HE SOCIAL NETWORK

OTHER CATEGORIES
little to say on the other candidates: uncertainty reigns in the best foreign film, always a harbinger of surprises: the favorite seems to be Inarritu's Biutiful , with Javier Bardem , but also with his Suzanne Bier A better world has good chances, and it says a lot of good also de The woman who sings , seen in Venice. For the rest, easy to predict the victory of Toy Story 3 between the cartoons and that of the 'master' for photography Roger Deakins de The Grit, and frankly I do not do predictions for the technical categories and for the music, moltro more details. Finally, little hope for the only Italian bid: Costumes for Antonella Cannarozzi I love have little chance of upsetting the odds favored seeing the 'legendary' Colleen Atwood (winner of two Oscar) with Alice in Wonderland .